Monday 22 May 2017

Value Pick - The Mandhana Retail Ventures Ltd - Being Human-CMP 194

Image result for being human poster salman khan
The Mandhana Retail Ventures Ltd
  Listed on both NSE: TMRVL & BSE: 540210
Currently trading around 194.75 with a market cap of around 440 crores.
Promoters hold 42.95% stake.
It has a Total Debt of around 19 crores.

The Mandhana Retail Ventures Ltd (TMRVL) is the demerged branded clothing business of Mandhana Industries. TMRVL is in the business of design, manufacture, retail, distribute: men, women, kids clothing & accessories as the Global Licensee of the brand Being Human till atleast 2020.

Being Human Clothing needs no introduction, The fashion brand under the Being Human NGO run by one of India's biggest superstar Salman Khan. The NGO with its philanthropic activities hasevolved wonderfully over the years. Its fashion venture Being Human Clothing has also done great. 

Today TMRVL operates: 60 EBO (Exclusive Brand Outlets) stores of Being Human across India and 5 EBOs overseas in Nepal, West Asia, France, Mauritius. The company as per reported data as on Oct end 2016 had 650 Point of Sales in Total for Being Human by EBOs, MBOs, Franchisees and Online partnerships.

The company now wants to focus on Tier II, Tier III cities by opening 100 new Being Human stores in the next two-three years as well as focus on going global as per news reports.

As per recent Media Reports quoting the management. The company besides Being Human is keen to get into similar business partnerships with other celebrities not only with Bollywood Starts but also the Indian Sports Fraternity by releasing their labels and paying them royalties.

Lets now take a look at financials and valuations of the company :-

As you can see TMRVL is undervalued compared to two of its peers,  TMRVL is available at a P/E of 14x with Market Cap to sales of 1.85 while Indian Terrain trades at a P/E of 31x and KKCL trades at a P/E of 25x.

Both Indian Terrain and TMRVL have similar percentage of promoter stake pledged. So that should not be a major driving force in the rating mismatch.

At valuations of 30x TMRVL should trade at 417. That is a potential upside of 111% against current price of 197.

TMRVL enjoys the advantage of indirect and direct marketing and endorsement by Salman Khan as he sports the Being Human Clothing all the time at Public Appearances as well as in his movies. The key negative here would be the dependence on one brand Being Human and the Brand's dependence on one man Salman Khan.
However, The company's plan to tie up with other celebrities can negate this risk and dependence on Being Human Brand.
Plus: Salman Khan's friendships get him a lot of Models (other bollywood celebs) for this brand,  If Salman can get someone like SRK to also endorse the brand its going to get a lot of hype.

As per latest Shareholding Pattern filing for quarter ended March 17- Rakesh Jhunjhunwala holds 12.74% stake and Ramesh Damani holds 1.03% stake. Recently, ChrysCapital acquired 3% stake at Rs 200 per share.

Technically on the charts: If we plot the daily line chart we have a sort of falling wedge breakout in TMRVL which activates on closing above 200.


All in All, I feel this is a good under valued opportunity available in the market as the stock has not run up at all. With Salman's Tubelight releasing this Eid on 23rd June it can be another trigger for the stock. Tubelight has a Cameo of Shah Rukh Khan and both the superstars are going to be seen together on the silver screen after 10 years.




Saturday 13 May 2017

Kesoram Industries - Trusted Technology – Solid Strength


CMP = 144




Kesoram Industries is part of the BK Birla Group and one of the oldest conglomerates in India since 1919. It has grown from strength to strength with diversified presence in the cement, tyre and rayon yarn.



Birla Shakti Cement 






Kesoram Industries operates two cement manufacturing plants with a combined capacity of  7. 5 million metric tons. 'Birla Shakti Cement' is the flagship brand of cement division and others brands  'Kesoram' and 'Vasavadatta' are also well established over long period. The cement manufacturing plants are located at Sedam in Karnataka 'Vasavadatta Cement Plant' and Basantnagar in Andhra Pradesh 'Kesoram Cement Plant'. Both are catering to regional demands in Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Goa, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana, Chhattisgarh and Tamil Nadu. The plants are strategically located near company leased limestone deposits in the states of Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh. Its cement grinding units are also located close to captive power plants. Further, Kesoram procures much of its fly ash from NTPC which has power plants in close proximity to both the cement plants.






Cement division is accredited with ISO 9001, 14001, 18001 and 50001 standards and it is only “Greenco Platinum Certified by CII” plant in the country.






'Birla Shakti Concrete' is the ready mix concrete (RMC) brand of  Kesoram Industries with annual capacity 6.5 lakh cubic meters, it is the largest ready-mixed concrete and aggregate production plant in India. It also offer consulting, research, trading, engineering and other services according to customer requirement. It is the first plant in India to offer customers a mobile application for placing orders.


http://birlashakticoncrete.in/index.html



Birla Tyres







Kesoram tyre manufacturing facility at Balasore was originally set up in 1991 with technology sourced from Pirelli UK, the world-renowned tyre manufacturer. Today Birla Tyres meticulously developed in house technology ensures that the Balasore factory manufactures a wide range of tyres for commercial Vehicles, light commercial vehicles, tractors, construction vehicles, and 2 and 3 Wheelers. 






It is one of the few tyre companies in India that offers complete range of tyres across all vehicle sectors under 'Birla Tyres' brand name. It is among the top six tyre manufacturing companies in India.



http://birlatyre.com/index.php



http://rubberasia.com/2017/02/13/indian-tyre-industry-formidable-growth/



Investment Rationale 



Kesoram Industries owns very strong business and well recognised brands like Birla Tyres (Tyre division) and Birla Shakti (Cement   division). Its business was performing very well (EPS was above 50) and stock was trading in the range of Rs 400 - 500 in year 2006 - 08. Company went for setting up an ambitious greenfield project at at Laksar (Haridwar) to produce 250 MT of truck tyres per day with cost around 1000 crores. Company get caught on wrong foot due to recession during 2008 and later slow down of business growth in cement and automobile sector. Debt burden keep mounting until last year when Aditya Birla group has raised its stake to get ownership control in Kesoram Industry. After that new promoter K Mangalam Birla has taken several restructuring process to trim the debt and make the company profitable.



http://www.dnaindia.com/money/report-kesoram-industries-hives-off-rayon-business-as-kumar-mangalam-birla-gets-ownership-control-2194822



The truck and bus radial tyre plant at Haridwar was sold to J K Tyre for Rs 2,200 crore to get rid of a much delayed project carrying high debt burden.



Hiving off its rayon and transparent paper business to unlisted entity, Cygnet Industries, a wholly-owned subsidiary for Rs 480 crore 



Loss making heavy chemical business sold off and divestment in listed companies ( cross holding) at market prices aggregated approximately Rs 470 crores.



After above steps debt and interest came down significantly near to half. Now debt is well manageable at par with industry peers with similar sales and production capacity.






Low rubber prices and positive growth in auto  sector are the major trigger for the tyre business of the company and company supply contract with major auto OEMs in India as well as abroad.



Company has already started the  production of radial tyres for two wheeler, three wheeler and car radial tyre from Balasore new plant. The production of commercial vehicle radial tyre  will start in coming quarters. It is high margin tyre segment which will further enhance the tyre business profitability. 



In cement business, the company sources limestone from its two leasehold mines (one each at both the locations) against royalty payment.



The company meets the entire power requirement for cement manufacturing from its captive coal based power plants, while it sells the surplus power generated (if any) from the plant in the open market.



Company is expected to be a key beneficiary of a cement demand revival in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana where growth of infrastructure will be very high due to creation of new state.



Company has developed a good market for RMC (Ready Mix Concrete). Penetration of RMC has been low at about 8 per cent in India  (USA: 88 per cent; China: 33 per cent; Brazil: 32 per cent) because retail sales comprise mostly of bag cement. It gives good growth possibilities in RMC segment.



Going forward with government’s focus on infrastructure and affordable housing, Housing for All' by 2022, where 11 crore houses have to be constructed at an investment of $ 2 trillion. The cement industry's medium to long term outlook is very optimistic as demand for cement is likely to get boost from industrial and commercial segments as well as from mass housing and mid-income housing schemes across the country.  Cement demand is likely to improve, resulting in higher capacity utilization. Demand from rural market is also expected to rise as better than expected monsoon as well as strong government push for the rural sector will improve rural income. The government has also increased its budget allocation for the IAY (Indira Aawas Yojana), PMGSY (Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana) and MNREGA (Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act) that have the potential to further improve cement demand. 




Further details reports on Housing growth, Infrastructure growth,  Commercial real estate growth, Development in Metro, Roads, Airports, Urbanisation and industrialisation development in the country and Government Initiatives towards New Schemes are given in below link



https://www.ibef.org/download/Cement-January-2017.pdf



Conclusion




Kesoram Industries has very good assets,  strong brand name in cement and tyre segment, business network across the country and  capable promoters.  New promoters has taken every step to bring back the company on track. Significant reduction in debt and interest cost has given very clear visibility that company will make turnaround in coming quarters. The cement industry is expected to continue the growth trajectory for long term because government pushing infrastructure development at full stretch. In the recent past tyre sector has shown good momentum coupled with low cost of rubber and improvement in vehicle demand.  Kesoram Industries at cmp 144 is giving very good investment opportunity for mid to long term. It can be given allocation 10 -20% and bought + /- 10% from cmp.