Associated Alcohols & Breweries Ltd - Multibagger Pick

Associated Alcohols & Breweries Ltd

  Listed on BSE: (CODE: 507526 SCRIP NAME: ASALCBR)
Currently trading around 185 with a market cap of around 180 crores.

Promoters hold 58.45% stake.
It has a Debt of around 45 crores.

Total Reserves are around 59 crores.

Established in 1989 Associated Alcohols & Breweries Ltd (AABL) is one of the largest distilleries in India headed by the Kedias of of The Associate Kedia Group.

The company has presence in every aspect of value chain: All varieties of portable alcohols, Country liquor, High quality rectified spirits, Extra Neutral Alcohol, Extra fine triple distilled grain spirit, IMFL in whisky brandy rum gin vodka categories, Bottling scotch whisky for international brands.

Company has great relationship with Liquor Majors which buy almost 60% IMFL produced by AABL and the remaining is used for direct supplies to to branded suppliers across the country, apart from manufacturing its owned brands.

AABL has someone of the top selling brands under its kitty, Top AABL licensed brands are: Blackdog, Smirnoff Vodka, Captain Morgan Rum, HAIG Scotch, Glen Drummond, Royal Crown.

Many of these brands are owned by United Spirits Ltd.

AABL apart from licensed brands also started a range of owned brands like: Mc Gill Whisky, Jamaican Magic Rum, Bombay Special, London Bridge gin, Red & White Whisky.

The company has its facility in Indore.

AABL has chalked out a huge greenfield expansion plan to capture domestic and international demand and serve all the segments of alcohol ranging from country liquors to IMFL. This plan includes setting up a multi-pressure ENA plant, a collector plant, a Reverse Osmosis Water Treatment Plant and a 2 MW power plant.

AABL is setting up a multi pressure ENA plant. This plant will completely replace the older plant and increase our production capacity from the present 42 MLPA to 65 MLPA. The multi-pressure ENA plant cuts down the stages in the manufacture and thus improves process efficiency.

Coming to the financials, AABL has shown great growth :-

As you can see the company has grown at a RAPID pace in five years from 90 crores topline it has come to almost 300 crores and H1-FY16 has been flat which means that the topline bump up was sustainable and now company is going to report results tomorrow which i expect to be good. United Spirits one of AABL's major client has reported good revenue bump up in Dec qtr.

The company also paid dividend for the first time in last many years in FY16.

The management has also approved 1:1 Bonus, final call on Bonus will be taken at the EGM on 22nd February 2016.

For full year 2016 it can be expected that last two quarters should be good, Means EPS of 15+ should be on the cards. 

Liquor sector is really hot right now, United Spirits which is also major client of AABL is trading at astronomical valuations because the brand ownership it has, It is often said that United Spirits after dust of previous management settles can be a significant Multibagger in next few years... All that said about future, AABL is already making money from the brands of USL.

Our earlier pick in liquor sector was Pincon Spirits Ltd which was given at 115 and it has now touched 150+ after bonus of 1:1 meaning it gained almost 160% after catching our attention. GM Breweries is another great story in this sector, Which went from Rag of 100 to Rich of 1000+ in just 1 year.

Irrespective of stock market conditions, In India the consumption theme is one of the best investment themes. One major hype has been Liquor Ban here and there but in reality, Major tax revenue for both central and state governments are from Liquor and Tobacco sector and no one in the world kills the goose that lays the golden eggs.

Promoters hold 58.45% stake, Some 5 Marwadi guys hold 2.22% stake together, Interestingly the regd. office of AABL has been in Kolkata and two Kolkata financial market entities Garnet Tradelink and Attic Dealcom both having same directors hold another 20% almost.

That means almost 80.67% equity out of total 9039600 shares are with promoters and other Marwardis means only approx 17 lakh shares might be left with small shareholders.

I feel Associated Alcohols & Breweries Ltd (AABL) is one multibagger opportunity in the market, with such great growth and wonderful positioning in the value chain it should be trading at really premium valuations on its EPS of 15, assuming 35 times valuations to its EPS would give stock price of 525+.

Key trigger for re-rating could be the 1:1 bonus which will drive liquidity in the stock that can improve the valuations.

At cmp of around 185, The stock is trading at a P/E of only around 12. 

Apart from the fundamentals, Technically too AABL is looking very bullish. AABL is close to breakout of Cup and Handle pattern on daily charts and a key thing to note is that the stock is having a Higher High and Higher Low trend which is really mid-term long-term bullish.

The market has been crashing nowadays and it looks like we are pretty much near the bottom now since if Nifty has to fall further the High Weightage biggies have to crash significantly but that does not look on the cards. Why we chose liquor sector right now is because, This sector is almost recession proof and as they say People Drink in Joy and also in Sorrow.

Note: The above is not a research report but information as available on public domain and it should not be treated as a research report.

Registration status with SEBI: I am not registered with SEBI under the (Research Analyst) regulations 2014 and as per clarifications provided by SEBI: “Any person who makes recommendation or offers an opinion concerning securities or public offers only through public media is not required to obtain registration as research analyst under RA Regulations”

Disclosure: It is safe to assume that i might have Associated Alcohols & Breweries Ltd in my portfolio and hence my point of view can be biased. Readers should consult their financial advisory before any investments.

Kamdhenu Ispat - Common Business with Uncommon Vision

Kamdhenu Ispat Ltd.

CMP - 45

   

Kamdhenu Ispat' is largest TMT steel selling brand in India. company engaged in the manufacturing, marketing, branding and distribution of a broad spectrum of construction products including steel, paints, wood finishes, plywood, roofing sheets, pvc pipes, construction chemicals,  cement, mineral water etc. Company is providing one roof solution to all construction needs. The 'Kamdhenu' brand is well established and known as "Best Quality at Best Price". The company is listed on BSE and NSE with sales turnover of Rs.1011 crores. However, the overall brand turnover of Kamdhenu products is above Rs. 6,000 crores. The company is having more than 50 franchisee manufacturing units. The company has very effective distribution system through the exclusive dealer network and Stockyard Model. It has 4000 dealers of paint division, 3500 dealers & distributors for steel and 32 sales stockyards, spread across the country. 

http://www.kamdhenuispat.com/corporate-film.php

Royalty Income from Franchisee Business Association Model

Kamdhenu Ispat is pioneer in the revolutionary concept of Franchisee Model in mid-tier steel segment and able sustain it successfully during rough period of steel sector. The franchisee units benefit a lot by availing Kamdhenu’s brand premium and strong marketing network, while Kamdhenu Ispat Limited benefits from the royalty that it gets from these franchisees for using its brand name. The model also gives a unique identity to the franchisee units and helps them in leveraging their level of operations and quality to sustain well amidst rising competition in the steel sector. 

The 'Franchisee Business Association Model' is an arrangements under which the Kamdhenu allows the Franchisee units to manufacture products under the Brand name ‘Kamdhenu” under strict quality control laid down by the Company. The Franchisee markets the products at its own using marketing network of Kamdhenu and paying the royalty to the company on sales per tonne or per bag or percentage basis. 'Kamdhenu' brand  gives good competitive edge to franchises and  allows to use expertise and latest technology without any major investment. Most of these franchises were sick units in the past and owned by different entrepreneurs from various location in India.  These units were bailed out once they came under ‘Kamdhenu’ umbrella to make their business viable. It is win-win situation for both franchisees and Kamdhenu with following benefits.

• Market share of Kamdhenu will go up without investing in manufacturing plants.
• It will result in minimum tax burden on Kamdhenu
• Quick delivery due to reduced transportation from nearest stockyard/franchisee units.
• Availability of quality products each and every part of the country
• Company able to increase its profitability by increased turn-around cycle of available resources.
• Company will  able to derive benefits of handling large volumes.
• Company will get royalty payments from the franchisees for use of Kamdhenu brand."

Product Description

KAMDHENU SS10000 TMT BARS - "Do Ka Dum" 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bwLk0fZK6r0

Kamdhenu has established a premium brand  patented product KAMDHENU SS10000 TMT Bar. It is the only product in its class featuring double ribs, double strength and double safety. It gives 254% more strength to the bonding of concrete and steel and it also has the capacity to create performance of concrete up to 10,000 Psi with right mixture of concrete. The technology for manufacturing of Kamdhenu SS 10000 TMT bar had been developed with the technical know-how sharing agreement with Knightsbridge Resources Limited, United Kingdom. The product has been specifically developed keeping in view the stringent requirements of construction sector, highways and other premium infrastructure projects. KAMDHENU SS 10000 is indispensible for high rise buildings and all kind of constructions in high seismic earthquake zones. Because of its unique features and properties, Kamdhenu SS 10000 is a notch above than any other product in its class. It provide double strength and double safety at the price of single-ribbed product.

TMT (thermo-mechanically-treated) BARS

TMT bars are widely used in general purpose concrete reinforcement structures, bridges and flyovers, dams, thermal and hydel power plants, industrial structures, high-rise buildings, underground platforms in metro railway and rapid transport system. TMT Bars are thermo-mechanically-treated through leading world tempcore based technology for high yield strength. Kamdhenu Ispat Limited has been authorized to manufacture Tempcore TMT under license agreement with Centre De Rechercher Metallurgiques (CRM) Belgium  for use of TEMPCORE trademark used for identification of high quality steel bars. 

KAMDHENU PAINTS-COLOUR DREAMZ

 "Dil Ke Rang Deewaron Pe"

The company forayed into decorative paints business in the year 2008 -09. Since then it has come a long way to become household name and sixth largest Paint company in India with turnover of Rs. 164 crores for last year. The company is offering complete range of paint products that includes variants of low VOC Eco-friendly products in its existing range of Architectural, Decorative and Designer paint products that includes Exterior & Interior Emulsions, Synthetic & GP Enamels, Acrylic Distempers, Water Based & Solvent based Primers, Wood Finishes, Aluminum Finishes and Textured & Designer Finishes. It has wide range of fine quality paint shades to meet all requirement and choice of the customer. Kamdhenu Paints has installed 750 Tinting Machines which has made the brand more popular. Tinting machine is used to obtain desired shade by mixing colorant from computerized Tinting machine with paint base as per choice of the consumer. 

The company has started manufacturing of Stainer which is used to create shades of colour by adding few drops of stainer into white base thus, providing innumerable choices at the disposal of consumers. Company has launched of an entire range of wood-coating products giving complete solution to the needs of every household. "

"Kamdhenu Designer Gallery"

The Kamdhenu Paints Designer Gallery is a futuristic concept being realized by Kamdhenu Paints furthering its consumer friendly state of the art services. The recently introduced “Kamdhenu Designer Gallery” is the finest name in premium luxury wall fashion aimed to give its consumers a divine experience of ultimate glamorous lifestyle. The gallery offers exclusive range of latest international trends in wall finishes with a choice of premium & luxury modern finishes,  textures and coatings to create a living space that warms the heart of its visitors. "

In Aug 2014 company has given guide lines to achieve 500 crores revenue from paint business in next three years. After that company has taken several steps to achieve the target and started manufacturing of stainer, wood finishes, designer gallery concept, installation of tinting machines, TV and print media promotions, incentive to dealers etc.

http://www.newswire.com/press-release/diya-mirza-sonu-nigam-attended-and-entertained-at-grand-dealer

http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2014-08-24/news/53166750_1_75-crore-kamdhenu-ispat-decorative-paint-products

Kamdhenu Plywood

Kamdhenu is all set to grow the Plywood business similar to steel. ‘Kamdhenu Plywood’ is high-grade plywood manufactured through advanced technologies and is available  in a variety of exotic designs, attractive colours and patterns, these durable plywoods always live up to the expectations of consumers. They are precisely tested for strength to resist cracks, shrinkage and twist. Kamdhenu is manufacturing  different grades of plywood and moulded designer doors to meet all types of application and requirements. 

Other Products

Structural Steel, Wirebond, Color Coated Roofing Sheets, PVC Pipes, Cement, Construction Chemicals, mineral water are manufactured in its franchisee units under Kamdhenu brand with strict quality control of Kamdhenu. After establishing sizable business of these products company has option to start its own manufacturing units to meet the market demand.

Rationale for Investment in Kamdhenu

• When most of the steel companies are making losses , pledging shares and accumulating heavy debts during last 3-4 years but Kamdhenu is able to post consistent profit and expanding its business across India. It is all due to asset light franchise business model which makes it rare company in steel sector. Franchise business model has enabled the company to expand its production capacity without any major investment and same time it has earned significant amount of royalty income for the use of brand name. Last year royalty income was 29 crores which is one third of total market capital of the company. Most of the royalty earning companies like Monsanto and Arrow coated products are trading well above industry P/E but Kamdhenu is trading 40% below industry P/E, even though it is listed under low P/E steel sector.

• Paint division already has established sizable business and placed itself in the top 6 brands of the country in the decorative paint segment. Further company is trying hard to scale up more than 500 crore business to be amongst the top 5 paint brands in India. It is very much possible by seeing the marketing network and capabilities of the company. Actual valuation of paint business is  itself more than current market valuation of the company because paint industry P/E ratio is around 50. 

http://retail.franchiseindia.com/interview/retail-people/profiles/We-expect-to-be-among-the-top-5-paint-brands-in-the-next-five-years.i756/

• Market unable to realize its value because company is listed under small & medium steel sector since IPO in 2006 with annual turnover around 100 crores. It has started paint & other businesses later on. Recently company has taken the step to resolve the above issues  and removal of ' Ispat' surname by the special resolution to change the name of company to "Kamdhenu Limited" and alteration in the object clause of memorandum of association. It will enable the company to come under miscellaneous or diversified sector. To unlock the value in future, company has the option to list paint and steel business separately by keeping other businesses and brand royalty  with holding company Kamdhenu Ltd.

http://www.kamdhenuispat.com/Financial-Results/Notice%20of%20Postal%20Ballot%20Dated%2007-11-2015.pdf

"http://www.moneycontrol.com/stocks/reports/kamdhenu-ispat-resultpostal-ballot-2688801.html"

• Shareholding of promoter and promoter group has increased from 47% to 69% since IPO in 2006. It shows their confidence in the company and in themselves.

Promoters 

Ability, capability and vision of the promoters reflects in their work by transforming small single product manufacturing unit into largest TMT selling brand in India and brought more than 50 multi -products franchisee manufacturing units under Kamdhenu umbrella across the country. They stick to their vision of Kamdhenu brand positioning and franchise business model development over long period with determination and dedication to make it successful. They have created masterpiece assets for stakeholders by growing different business verticals.

'The Company has got the award in the lndo-UAE Business Summit 2015. ‘World’s Greatest Brand, 2015—Asia & GCC’ in the Iron and steel category.  In the same event, the Company’s Director Mr. Sunil Agarwal has been honored with ‘World’s Greatest Leader, 2015—Asia & GCC’.

http://www.apnnews.com/news-voir/?c_article_id=5892&c_author_id=6399&originurl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.apnnews.com%2Fnews-voir%2F

http://www.financialexpress.com/article/companies/kamdhenu-wins-worlds-greatest-brand-2015-asia-gcc-award/183645/

Conclusion

Company is in very simple evergreen and long lasting  business of construction material and it is very easy to understand it. But the method adopted to run this business is very rare and unique. Govt. of India is giving priority to infrastructure and housing sector by making increased budgetary allocation for smart cities, National highways, Roads, Bridges, Power plants, dams, rural housing etc. All this will result in a steady growth of construction material consumption in the country. Company is well positioned to take the advantage of opportunities coming in the field of construction and infra sector. It has asset light  franchise business model which can grow in all type of market conditions. It has deep hidden values in its all business verticals which can be listed separately. Over all it is wonderful company for long term investment available at very low price.